Morgan Creek CEO Mark Yusko says it’s possible that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 in value by the end of 2021 and that the future price of Bitcoin beyond that could easily surpass the $400,000 mark. Even for the most enthusiastic Bitcoin lover, those numbers are absolutely mind-boggling to consider. Imagine buying a Bitcoin now for $10,000 US or less and cashing in and in four or five years for $400,000? Wow!
Consider though that these kind of Bitcoin prices could actually take 7 to 10 years or longer. There have been many Bitcoin price predictions in the past, too many to count. But just for fun, let’s pretend that all the transaction volume and value that comes from the Bitcoin network comes just from gamblers and nowhere else. How many gamblers will it take to make a $100,000 Bitcoin?
Making the Case for $100k Bitcoin
In order to get to a $100,000 Bitcoin, the market capitalization of the project would have to reach $2.1 trillion. That’s actually a mind blowing number. Just think about the fact that the S&P 500, which is North America’s benchmark measure of how the entire stock market is doing, couples together America’s top 500 companies by market capitalization and values them all and an estimated $25 trillion-$30 trillion at any given time. Bitcoin would eventually have to be worth nearly 10% of that just to reach a $100,000 value per coin. That’s insane!
Since many Bitcoin enthusiasts like to refer to Bitcoin as digital gold, let’s draw a comparison to actual gold just to offer yet another perspective. The current market capitalization of gold is estimated to be worth just under $10 trillion worldwide. That means Bitcoin would have to account for 25% of that value in order to get to $100,000.
Those are big numbers and years ago, even the most enthusiastic and optimistic Bitcoin proponent might’ve had trouble grasping at the concept of a single Bitcoin being worth that much. But it is possible.
That said, Bitcoin need support from major institutional investors in order to get to that point. J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon famously denounced Bitcoin in 2017 when the price was exploding, yet now the bank is opening business accounts for Bitcoin related businesses. It’s a sign that even the most conservative institutions speaking out against Bitcoin are now joining the movement they obviously can no longer beat. Major investment firm Grayscale saw record-breaking institutional activity take place surrounding Bitcoin in the first quarter of this year.
How Much Gambling Would It Take To Get to $2.1 Trillion?
It’s estimated that between 2014 and 2017, Bitcoin’s network took on $4.5 billion in transactions related to gambling. That’s just over $1.1 billion a year. That sounds like a lot of money but it’s still nearly 20 times less than what it would take to make Bitcoin worth $2.1 trillion.
It’s also estimated that in 2013, 50% of transactions on the Bitcoin network were related to gambling. Even if you assume that number, it would mean that Bitcoin would have to be worth $200,000 a coin or $4.2 trillion, just for the $100,000 valuation to be accounted for strictly with gambling.
As Bitcoin continues to scale and more people and institutions adopt it as an investment or a valid form of currency or gambling, the 50% ratio of people using the network specifically for gambling would have to drop. Realistically then, Bitcoin would have to be worth much more than $200,000 just to get to the $100,000 mark strictly on gambling transactions. But it is fun to wonder what could happen, and now you know.