With the Bitcoin network and its price reaching record strength in August, 2020, Bitcoin exchange Kraken is predicting that over the next few months the price of Bitcoin could rally 200% more from where it is now. As the price continues to bounce around between $10,000 and $12,000 USD, the prediction means that we could potentially see a bitcoin worth $36,000 in the next few months.
Given there is so much potential upside in the price according to Kraken, perhaps time to go in big on Bitcoin. Or is it?
Kraken’s Bitcoin Price Report
Kraken’s most recent report points out that over the last 21 months, Bitcoin’s volatility hasn’t been lower than what it was on July 24, 2020. Why is this important? Lower volatility suggests that an upwards move happening slowly as an indication that the market is moving up with a steady degree of certainty and not just pure speculation or hoopla. The volatility at that moment in July was around 23%, and historical data shows that when bitcoin’s volatility ranges between 15% and 30%, rallies averaging up to 140% in gains tend to follow.
Couple that with the fact that Kraken’s report suggests August is one of the most volatile months of the year for bitcoin, and it’s likely that over the next several months, not volatility swings upwards. Therein is the logic of Kraken’s suggestion.
Fair Warning: Bitcoin Price History Doesn’t Always Repeat Itself
July, 2020 marked one of the strongest allies ever for Bitcoin’s price, a month and that is historically fairly weak in terms of positive price moves. The price moved 14.5% in just the last four days of the month. That’s a healthy profit for bullish investors and gamblers alike!
History also shows that when bitcoin passes a certain threshold of the weak volatility, which in this case could be considered the stretch of time between the start of the coronavirus pandemic in mid-March and the end of June, Bitcoin’s price rallies close to 200% thereafter.
Is Kraken’s Prediction as Good as Gold?
Kraken suggests that 44% of July’s trading volume came in the last week of the month. It’s clear that people are getting excited about the price movement. Perhaps some of it has to do with the fact that governments in North America are approving more stimulus funding, which in theory gives investors and gamblers alike more money to play with in the market.
What’s also interesting right now is the fact that Bitcoin is actually correlating strongly with gold. The price of gold is dipping in recent days, but only after hitting an all-time high. The correlation at the moment is as high as it has been in a full calendar year.
Considering that most investors think of gold as a hedge against a market crash and we are currently living through uncertain times, the fact that both gold and Bitcoin are doing well at the moment might be reason to take a gamble.
Betting on The Price of Bitcoin
Betting on the price of crypto to go up can mean going to an exchange to buy Bitcoin, doubling down on your wagers through a Bitcoin gambling site to try to rapidly increase your bankroll as the price appreciates, or buying into blockchain and Bitcoin related stocks. All three of those options are a good way to try to put yourself in position to capitalize on the rest of this Bull Run. But as always, we recommend managing your risk and not necessarily pushing your chips all in.