In a recent blog post on the Winklevoss Capital website, Tyler Winklevoss makes a striking case for the possibility of a $500,000 Bitcoin on behalf of himself and his brother Cameron. Could the Winklevoss twins be right in making that prediction? And is it worth it for money hungry Bitcoin gambling enthusiasts to bet big on the price now? Or is it better to gamble on something like Ethereum, which is at the centre of all the decentralized finance height taking crypto by storm at the moment?
Let’s breakdown Tyler’s reasoning behind the $500,000 Bitcoin prediction and go from there.
Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rise
Bitcoin went from zero dollars to a $200 billion market capitalization in less than a decade, the blog post points out. The twins also point out that physical gold is worth around $9 trillion today. Using the same framework to value both, the twins are essentially making the conclusion that Bitcoin is worth approximately 45 times more than the $12,000 price tag it currently sits at. At 45 times its current value, that’s a whopping price tag of $540,000 USD per Bitcoin.
Why Other Assets Pose Fundamental Issues
In another section of the same blog post, the twins argue that gold, oil and US Dollar currency all have fundamental problems that contribute to the idea that Bitcoin will be a much bigger part of the future as a store of value than most old-school investors probably think. But then again, Bitcoin purists like the Winklevoss twins and many others are predicting the same thing over and over again year-over-year.
The reality is however the coronavirus pandemic and the economic fallout that is resulting from it is only accelerating the interest of the individual in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and all other cryptocurrencies for that matter. The United States government is currently handing out lots of money to individuals and businesses of all shapes and sizes trying to prevent another big downturn in the economy. The end result of printing more and more money when a large part of the population isn’t working is usually a devaluation of the currency. Even famed stock market investor Warren Buffett is selling out of positions that deal in the American dollar. It appears the twins might be right about the dollar.
As far as oil is concerned, they believe that sudden shortages in oil production or oil’s availability will also lead to a downturn. Ultimately, both Cameron and Tyler make the assumption that traditional paper money will get eroded and banks will lose power and influence over the next decade, traditional investments like real estate will keep up, and that Bitcoin will ultimately surpass them all.
Other Comparisons Made by the Winklevoss Twins
The Winklevoss Twins’ blog post contains several interesting infographics comparing Bitcoin two different trends in finance and broader society. They compare the amount of time it took for people to go from no cell phones, to cell phones, all the way to today’s modern-day smartphones and naturally, compare bitcoin directly to gold.
Apart from that, they also go into detail about issues surrounding money and coronavirus, issues surrounding the handling of the Federal Reserve Bank’s balance sheet and another chart detailing the effects of recessions on economies and balance sheets. All of the resources and research provided in that blog post make a compelling case for the future of Bitcoin. So is now the right time to gamble?
Is Betting on A $500,000 Bitcoin A Good Idea?
If you believe in the logic and the magic of the Winklevoss twins (they’ve been successful in many other businesses), then betting on a $500,000 Bitcoin is a no-brainer. That being said, a lot has to happen in order for that target price to become reality. Even in a fast-paced world like blockchain technology, its going to take time and mass adoption too.
Still, the long-term gamble is to bet on Bitcoin. If the Winklevoss twins are indeed right, you’ll be glad you did.