What will the price of one full Bitcoin beyond March 31st, 2020. Bitcoin gambling aficionados who think they know the answer don’t just have to bet on the market price on a Bitcoin exchange or put more into their wallet. It’s now possible to wager on what the Bitcoin price will be at the end of this month, thanks to a website called Sports Betting Dime.
There may be no sports currently but people can still place a wager on Bitcoin as the cryptocurrency markets never close. You can see the odds below:
|2500 or Under||+300|
The odds above took effect on March 19, and as the chart shows, the most likely price range for Bitcoin as of March 31st is a range between $5,001 and $7,500. It makes sense that would be the most realistic target given that at the time of this writing the prices hovering between $6,500 and $7,000.
What’s intriguing about the current odds is that just in the last two weeks, the price it dipped down all the way to $3,100 USD. If that were to happen by the end of the month again, a bet in that range would pay 1 ½ times the wager. That’s pretty good value. The least likely outcome is a price over $10,000. Should that happen and some lucky gamblers out there place a wager, it will pay out at 14 to 1, which is certainly enough to get rich quick if the bet is placed in Bitcoin and the price appreciate that the same time as the bet triggers a win.
With the potential to earn large amounts of money/Bitcoin at stake here, let’s weigh the likelihood of the most extreme scenarios. First the likelihood of the price dropping below $2,500 before March 31 and second the likelihood of the price going up above $10,000.
Can Bitcoin Drop Below $2,500?
Given crypto prices move up and down so quickly, especially thanks to the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, it didn’t take long for Bitcoin’s adversaries to predict the price would plummet to zero and that digital currencies are worthless when the price crashed to $3,100 in the last two weeks.
Although the drop from nearly $11,000 to $3,100 from late December until now is quite a steep drop, it’s almost unfathomable to think that $20-$30 billion would move out of Bitcoin in a two week span, move back into Bitcoin and then that even more would be taken out. That’s simply too much indecisiveness displaying itself in the market in too short of a time, even for Bitcoin and even for a global epidemic. Although winning this bet is worth three times the wager, it’s probably not as valuable as betting on the upside.
Will Bitcoin Rise Above $10,000 By March 31st?
If there was ever a long shot to take on a value bet, this would be the one. Consider that in the last three weeks from the time of this writing, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $11,000 before plummeting. So far the month of March has taught us that the price is only slightly inversely correlated to what the rest of the broader investing market is doing to hedge against the coronavirus and a potential global recession.
This means that while it is unlikely for investors to admit a mistake collectively and start gassing up the price beyond $11,000 before the end of March, it is really the best value bet available right now in comparison to the other odds listed in the chart above.
It’s entirely possible that in the next week or so some great news comes out about the pandemic, or that investors realize pricing in the upcoming Bitcoin halving event, which cuts in half the number of new bitcoins entering the digital economy, saw the price spike too high and then too low and the market will then correct itself above the $10,000 mark.
While seeing Bitcoin stay in its current price range and paying out a winning wager at -110 is most likely, it’s always fun to imagine what it might be like to double or triple the amount of BTC in a wallet just by making a both good and lucky guess.